Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Flood Resilience in Coastal Cities
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22817405Keywords:
nature-based solutions, urban flood resilience, coastal cities, mangrove restoration, tidal wetlands, permeable pavement, green infrastructure, bioswales, grey infrastructure, cost-effectivenessAbstract
Coastal cities face compounding flood risk from sea-level rise, intensifying storm surge and heavier rainfall,
prompting growing interest in nature-based solutions (NBS) as complements or partial alternatives to grey
infrastructure. We compared NBS performance and cost-effectiveness for urban flood resilience across four coastal
case-study cities, Rotterdam, Miami, Jakarta and Lagos, spanning temperate, subtropical and tropical settings with
contrasting flood drivers. Using coupled hydrodynamic-hydrological models (Delft3D and SWMM) calibrated against
documented historical flood events, we simulated peak water levels and inland flood extent under a 100-year design
storm combined with each city's locally projected 2050 sea-level rise, comparing baseline conditions against four
NBS scenarios, tidal wetland or mangrove restoration, permeable pavement retrofits, bioswale networks, and a
combined multi-measure scenario, alongside a conventional grey-infrastructure upgrade scenario. Across cities, the
combined NBS scenario reduced simulated peak flood extent by a mean of 34% (range 22-46%) relative to
baseline, compared with 41% for the grey-infrastructure scenario, but at approximately 38% of the median
per-hectare capital cost, with co-benefits (urban heat reduction, habitat provision, recreational amenity) valued at an
additional USD 1.8-4.6 million per km2 over a 30-year horizon. Tidal wetland and mangrove restoration alone
attenuated storm surge peak water levels by 0.12-0.31 m per 100 m of restored width, consistent with prior
wave-attenuation findings. Permeable pavement and bioswale retrofits reduced pluvial peak runoff by 18-29% in
high-density catchments but showed limited benefit against surge-dominated flooding. We conclude that NBS
deliver flood-risk reductions approaching those of grey infrastructure at substantially lower cost once co-benefits are
included, but perform best as hybrid grey-green systems rather than standalone substitutes in cities exposed to
severe storm surge.
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