Groundwater Depletion Trends Under Changing Precipitation Regimes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22817086Keywords:
groundwater depletion, GRACE satellite gravimetry, aquifer drawdown, precipitation variability, recharge deficit, irrigation withdrawal, Indo-Gangetic Plain, Central Valley, North China PlainAbstract
Groundwater sustains irrigation, drinking supply, and baseflow for roughly two billion people, yet whether observed
aquifer depletion is driven by unsustainable pumping or by concurrent shifts in precipitation-driven recharge
remains inadequately quantified across major aquifer systems. Here we combined GRACE and GRACE Follow-On
satellite gravimetry (2003-2023) with gridded precipitation records and irrigated-area estimates to derive terrestrial
water storage trends for ten major aquifer systems, statistically decomposing each trend into a
precipitation-recharge component and a residual, anthropogenic component via multiple linear regression against
detrended precipitation anomalies. Across the ensemble, mean groundwater storage declined at a pooled rate
equivalent to -19.8 cubic kilometers per year, with the Indo-Gangetic Plain showing the fastest absolute loss (-12.3
cubic kilometers per year) and the North China Plain the fastest normalized decline (-3.4 centimeters per year
equivalent water height). Precipitation deficits explained a significant share of interannual storage variability in six of
ten systems but accounted for less than 20 percent of the multidecadal depletion trend in seven, indicating that
long-term decline is predominantly attributable to abstraction rather than recharge failure. The Central Valley and
Arabian aquifer system showed the strongest residual, pumping-attributable trends, while the High Plains aquifer
showed a balanced contribution from both drivers. Systems overlying regions with the largest precipitation
interannual variability also showed the largest year-to-year storage fluctuations, consistent with recharge sensitivity
to a more variable precipitation regime even where it did not dominate the long-term trend. These findings indicate
that climate-driven recharge variability modulates short-term aquifer dynamics but that sustained depletion across
most major aquifer systems is chiefly a consequence of abstraction exceeding recharge, underscoring the primacy
of demand-side groundwater governance.
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