Drought Propagation Mechanisms Across Hydrological Systems in Semi-Arid Basins
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22801744Keywords:
drought propagation, hydrological drought, soil moisture drought, streamflow drought, groundwater drought, semi-arid basins, standardized indices, baseflow index, lag time, drought poolingAbstract
Meteorological drought does not translate instantaneously or uniformly into the soil-moisture and streamflow deficits
that determine water availability for people, agriculture and ecosystems; instead, a precipitation shortfall propagates
through a basin's storage components over weeks to years, changing character, duration and severity as it moves.
We quantified this propagation across 18 semi-arid river basins in three climatically similar but geologically
contrasting regions, using 30-year (1991-2020) records of precipitation, modelled root-zone soil moisture, observed
streamflow and, for a 9-basin subset with adequate well coverage, groundwater levels, converted to the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), Standardized Streamflow Index
(SSI) and Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI). Cross-correlation and pooled event-matching analyses showed a
median lag of 1 month from meteorological to soil-moisture drought onset, 3 months to streamflow drought, and 8
months to groundwater drought, but these medians concealed a roughly four-fold spread across basins that was
strongly and significantly associated with baseflow index (BFI): low-BFI, flashy basins on impermeable substrate
propagated meteorological drought into streamflow drought within a median of 1.4 months, while high-BFI basins
with substantial aquifer storage delayed and smoothed the signal to a median of 5.9 months, attenuating peak
deficit severity by an average of 41% relative to the driving SPI series. We further identified consistent threshold
and pooling behaviour: short, separate meteorological dry spells that left no discernible streamflow signature
individually frequently merged into a single, more severe hydrological drought event once cumulative soil-moisture
and groundwater storage fell below a basin-specific threshold, a nonlinearity that the optimal SPI accumulation
timescale for predicting SSI (ranging from 3 to 15 months across basins, median 6) only partially captured.
Propagation lag and attenuation were both better predicted by BFI and aquifer transmissivity than by aridity index or
basin area. These results indicate that catchment storage structure, more than climatic dryness itself, governs how
quickly and how severely a meteorological drought becomes a water-resources crisis in semi-arid basins, with direct
implications for drought early-warning lead times.
References
Van Loon AF (2015) Hydrological drought explained. WIREs Water 2(4):359-392. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085
Van Loon AF, Van Lanen HAJ (2012) A process-based typology of hydrological drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16(7):1915-1946. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012
Peters E, Torfs PJJF, Van Lanen HAJ, Bier G (2003) Propagation of drought through groundwater - a new approach using linear reservoir theory. Hydrological Processes 17(15):3023-3040. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5132
Barker LJ, Hannaford J, Chiverton A, Svensson C (2016) From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(6):2483-2505. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016
Wu J, Chen X, Yao H, Gao L, Chen Y, Liu M (2017) Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir. Journal of Hydrology 551:495-507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.019
Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate 23(7):1696-1718. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology 391(1-2):202-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
Van Lanen HAJ, Wanders N, Tallaksen LM, Van Loon AF (2013) Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17(5):1715-1732. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013
Haslinger K, Koffler D, Schoner W, Laaha G (2014) Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow: Effects of climate-catchment interaction. Water Resources Research 50(3):2468-2487. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015051
Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Vicente-Serrano SM, Lopez-Moreno JI, Begueria S, Garcia-Ruiz JM, Cuadrat JM (2010) The impact of droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the headwaters of the Tagus River. Journal of Hydrology 386(1-4):13-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.024
Tijdeman E, Hannaford J, Stahl K (2018) Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22(2):1051-1064. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1051-2018
Apurv T, Sivapalan M, Cai X (2017) Understanding the role of climate characteristics in drought propagation. Water Resources Research 53(11):9304-9329. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021445
Fleig AK, Tallaksen LM, Hisdal H, Demuth S (2006) A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 10(4):535-552. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-10-535-2006
Wong G, Van Lanen HAJ, Torfs PJJF (2013) Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought. Hydrological Sciences Journal 58(2):253-270. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.753147
Kumar R, Musuuza JL, Van Loon AF, Teuling AJ, Barthel R, Ten Broek J, Mai J, Samaniego L, Attinger S (2016) Multiscale evaluation of the standardized precipitation index as a groundwater drought indicator. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(3):1117-1131. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016
Naumann G, Cammalleri C, Mentaschi L, Feyen L (2021) Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change 11:485-491. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-3
Corzo Perez GA, Van Huijgevoort MHJ, Voss F, Van Lanen HAJ (2011) On the spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological droughts from global hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15(9):2963-2978. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2963-2011
Van Huijgevoort MHJ, Hazenberg P, Van Lanen HAJ, Uijlenhoet R (2012) A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16(8):2437-2451. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2437-2012
Huang S, Li P, Huang Q, Leng G, Hou B, Ma L (2017) The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors. Journal of Hydrology 547:184-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.041
Vidal JP, Martin E, Franchisteguy L, Habets F, Soubeyroux JM, Blanchard M, Baillon M (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14(3):459-478. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-459-2010
Zhao M, A G, Velicogna I, Kimball JS (2017) A global gridded dataset of GRACE drought severity index for 2002-14: comparison with PDSI and SPEI and a case study of the Australia Millennium drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology 18(8):2117-2129. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0100.1
Van Loon AF, Laaha G (2015) Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. Journal of Hydrology 526:3-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059
Wanders N, Wada Y (2015) Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought. Journal of Hydrology 526:208-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.047
