Renewable Energy Policy Harmonization Across Regional Trade Blocs
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22816824Keywords:
renewable energy policy, regional trade blocs, policy harmonization, cross-border electricity trade, renewable portfolio standards, European Union, ASEAN, Mercosur, African Continental Free Trade AreaAbstract
Regional trade blocs increasingly frame renewable energy cooperation as a trade-policy objective, yet whether
harmonized renewable standards translate into measurably greater cross-border electricity trade remains poorly
quantified outside the European context. We compared renewable energy policy frameworks across four regional
trade blocs, the European Union, ASEAN, Mercosur, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),
constructing a policy harmonization index from 2010-2023 legal texts spanning renewable portfolio targets,
grid-code and interconnection standards, guarantee-of-origin certificate mutual recognition, and cross-border tariff
treatment of renewable electricity, and matched this index against bloc-level cross-border electricity trade volumes
and renewable capacity growth from IEA and bloc statistical agencies. The EU scored highest on the harmonization
index (0.81 of 1.0), driven by binding target transposition and mutually recognized guarantees of origin, and
recorded the largest cross-border renewable electricity trade share (14.2% of renewable generation). ASEAN
scored 0.34, reflecting voluntary targets and limited interconnection standardization despite the operating ASEAN
Power Grid pilot interconnections. AfCFTA and Mercosur scored 0.21 and 0.28 respectively, constrained by
non-binding instruments and heterogeneous grid codes. Panel regression across 2010-2023 bloc-years found each
0.1-point increase in the harmonization index associated with a 2.6 percentage-point increase in cross-border
renewable trade share (95% CI 1.4-3.8), controlling for interconnector capacity and GDP growth.
Guarantee-of-origin mutual recognition was the single instrument most strongly associated with trade growth. These
findings indicate that harmonization of certification and grid-interconnection instruments, rather than target-level
ambition alone, is the more tractable near-term lever for blocs seeking to expand cross-border renewable electricity
trade, with direct relevance for ongoing AfCFTA energy protocol and ASEAN grid interconnection negotiations.
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