Climate Change Effects on Pollinator Distribution and Crop Pollination Services
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22813612Keywords:
pollinator range shift, phenological mismatch, wild bees, crop pollination services, species distribution modelling, climate change adaptation, pollination deficit, European agricultureAbstract
Climate change is altering both the geographic distribution of wild pollinators and the timing of their seasonal activity
relative to the flowering of the crops they service, yet few studies have jointly quantified range shift and phenological
mismatch for the same pollinator-crop systems under a common climate scenario framework. Here we combined
ensemble species distribution models for 46 wild bee species with long-term phenological records (1985-2022) for
three insect-pollinated crops, apple, highbush blueberry, and oilseed rape, across 210 agricultural landscapes in
Italy, Slovakia, and Sweden, and projected changes in pollinator climatic suitability and pollinator-crop phenological
synchrony under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Under RCP8.5 by 2071-2100, the ensemble
projected a mean poleward range-centroid shift of 118 km and a mean upward elevational shift of 156 m across the
46 species, with 28 species (61%) losing more than 30% of currently suitable climatic area within the three study
regions. Long-term phenological records showed that crop flowering had advanced by a mean of 6.4 days per
decade since 1985, while emergence of key wild bee pollinator taxa (Bombus, Andrena, Osmia) advanced more
slowly at 3.1 days per decade, producing a measurable widening of pollinator-crop asynchrony that was significantly
correlated with reduced fruit and seed set in apple and blueberry orchards (r = -0.52, p < 0.001). Combining
projected range loss with projected mismatch, we estimate that 34% of the pollination-dependent cropland
examined faces a moderate-to-high projected pollination service deficit by 2071-2100 under RCP8.5, concentrated
in the Mediterranean and continental study regions, with a combined annual production value at risk of
approximately EUR 940 million across the three countries. Under RCP4.5, projected range loss and mismatch
widening were reduced by roughly half. These findings indicate that climate change poses a spatially
heterogeneous but economically substantial risk to insect-pollinated crop production in Europe through the joint
mechanisms of pollinator range contraction and phenological desynchronization, and that emissions trajectory
materially determines the magnitude of that risk.
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