Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Link to Regional Fisheries Productivity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22813995Keywords:
sea surface temperature, marine heatwave, fisheries productivity, catch per unit effort, recruitment variability, upwelling ecosystem, North Sea cod, Humboldt Current anchoveta, California Current sardine, ENSOAbstract
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability is a recognised driver of fish stock productivity, yet the strength and
consistency of this relationship across contrasting fisheries systems remain incompletely quantified using a
common analytical framework. Here we combined 1982-2023 daily 0.25-degree NOAA OISST v2.1 fields with
long-term catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and recruitment time series from three contrasting fisheries: North Sea
Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), Humboldt Current Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens), and California Current
Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax). For each region we computed annual SST anomalies relative to a 1991-2020
climatology, marine heatwave (MHW) frequency, duration and cumulative intensity using the Hobday et al.
hierarchical MHW definition, and related these metrics to detrended CPUE and recruitment anomalies using
distributed-lag generalized additive models with a maximum three-year lag structure. Regional responses differed
markedly in sign and lag. North Sea cod recruitment showed a significant negative relationship with spring SST
anomaly at a one-year lag (r = -0.54, p < 0.01), consistent with reduced Calanus copepod prey availability during
warm springs. Humboldt Current anchoveta CPUE declined sharply during El Nino-associated MHW years, with
cumulative MHW intensity explaining 41% of interannual CPUE variance (r = -0.64, p < 0.001) and CPUE
reductions of 55-72% recorded during the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino events. California Current sardine CPUE
was positively associated with SST anomaly at short (zero- to one-year) lags during the 2014-2016 northeast
Pacific marine heatwave ('the Blob') but showed a significant negative relationship with the decadal warming trend
once interannual variability was removed, indicating scale-dependent and even sign-reversing responses within a
single stock. Across all three systems, MHW cumulative intensity was a stronger predictor of productivity anomalies
than mean annual SST anomaly alone (mean variance explained 38% versus 22%). These results indicate that
SST-fisheries relationships are region- and time-scale-specific rather than governed by a single universal thermal
response, and that MHW-based metrics improve on simple annual mean SST anomalies for anticipating
productivity shifts, with direct relevance for adaptive quota-setting in warming ocean regions.
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